The 3 Min Alpha Brief

As noted in our last update, we successfully sidestepped the bulk of the late October correction by reducing our positions early (Oct 8-10). While the market found a local floor and bounced on November 20, the data suggests the "risk reset" is not yet complete.

• US Equities: The Final Flush We anticipate one final washout to SPX 6400 (QQQ ~550) to finish the job by mid-December. It is important to note that a high-volatility event could briefly "wick" prices down to 6250 - we view this as the "scare" level, not a crash. Expect defensive, ranging behavior this week as the market digests the macro backdrop.
  
• The Pivot: A Line in the Sand The critical level to watch right now is 6750. If the market can hold above this level throughout the week, the bottom may already be in, and we will re-evaluate. However, any failure to hold 6750 confirms our primary scenario, and the lower targets are live.
  
• Strategy: A Generational Rotation We are shifting our focus to select "Generational Low" plays - specifically Offshore Drilling, Energy, Metals/PGM, and Cannabis. In these sectors, value is undeniable regardless of broader index volatility.
  
  We are buyers of this dip. If you are a subscriber, you should know our plays by now - and have already reveived the signals on Telegram and Discord.

Crypto Majors ($BTC, $ETH): The "Last Dance"

The data indicates the macro crypto cycle likely peaked in October 2025, aligning with our ETH exit signal. The "Super Cycle" thesis is dead (evidenced by -90% drops in major memes). However, BTC & ETH are currently consolidating above the "smart money" support zone with a confirmed 'B' (Bottom) signal.

• The Play We expect a final distribution rally. Wall Street will likely push BTC to 103k-110k and ETH to $4.5k-$5k+ to distribute to retail one last time.
• Cycle Timing: While history suggests an October 2026 bottom, we expect the market to front-run this. We are targeting a generational buying opportunity in Summer 2026 at BTC 70k-60k.
• Regarding Altcoins: This will be an "Alts Bounce" targeting 200-300% returns, not a broad Alt Season. Broad season is cancelled. We wil be executing precision trades based on relative strength and high-velocity breakouts. We are renters here, not owners.

How We're Playing It: YTD Performance & Strategy

• YTD Performance Metrics Our portfolio performance remains robust, standing at 106% IRR year-to-date (since March 2025). We are currently up 3% up in November and 1.5% up in December with a strategic target to close the month at ~5%.
  
• Strategic Stance: Capital Deployment Our priority is shifting from capital preservation to aggressive deployment into value. We are mapping the next set of entries with a focus on increasing position sizing in our "generational low" sectors: Offshore Drilling, Cannabis, and PGM/Metals - if you are a subscriber yo should already see our updates in the Telgram and Discord.
  
• The Crypto Command Center We are activating a tactical extraction operation. We acknowledge the cycle top is likely in, but volatility provides opportunity. We will play high-beta setups in alts - as ETH rallies to or close to ATH - and will likely pick up leveraged in in ETFs and select DAT stocks - XXRP, ETHT, CRCL, MTPLF.
  
  Otherwise, we are starting to prepare to short the descent into the Summer 2026 lows. This is not a "hold forever" phase—it is a sniper operation.