After a brief period of silence, we've been intensely focused on the evolving crypto landscape and recalibrating our strategy. Here’s a concise update for our followers on where things stand—and where we see them heading.
Liquidity Is King
Crypto’s fortunes are tightly linked to global liquidity cycles. Right now, the money supply remains tight, but the stage is being set for a significant expansion. With geopolitical tensions escalating and massive fiscal spending on the horizon—think the anticipated "$5 Trillion Big Beautiful Bill"—it’s only a matter of time before policymakers are compelled to inject fresh liquidity into the system. Historically, such environments have acted as a powerful tailwind for risk assets, crypto included.
Our Two-Tiered Approach
- Core Holdings: Institutional capital continues to consolidate around the only two assets with robust network effects and regulatory clarity: Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is the foundation of any disciplined crypto portfolio. Notably, Ethereum is showing strong signs of institutional accumulation, making it our preferred core holding.
- Altcoin Opportunity: For outsized, cycle-driven gains, we’re closely monitoring the altcoin sector. The single most important metric here is the OTHERS/BTC ratio—our leading indicator for altcoin market health. Currently, this ratio is deeply oversold on multi-week timeframes and sentiment is at historic lows. Far from being a cause for panic, these conditions often precede major cyclical bottoms. We may be closer to a turning point than most realize.
Macro Backdrop & Market Sentiment
Traditional finance is entering a late-cycle rally as we head into summer, and crypto is unlikely to remain sidelined for long. The Federal Reserve only needs a modest policy shift to reignite risk appetite across the board.
While further downside in altcoins remains possible—a final capitulation to flush out remaining weak hands—the probability of a bottom is rising. We are still seeing heavy negative volume on high timeframes, so stay cautious my friends.
Key Signal to Watch
We are watching the OTHERS/BTC ratio with heightened vigilance. When it confirms a reversal, it will likely serve as the earliest and most reliable signal that a high-beta altcoin rally is imminent.
We’ll keep you updated and alert you the moment our triggers fire. Stay tuned and stay disciplined—opportunity often emerges when sentiment is at its bleakest.