January 15, 2026
Memo to MomentumX Investors
Markets grind higher amid frothy sentiment and mixed signals. The S&P 500 closed at ~6,944 (+0.26% today), flirting with the psychological 7,000 level but still facing short-term bearish timing overlays. We remain well above our critical warning zone of 6,820, and all key leading indicators continue to point higher — for now.
Bitcoin hovers in the $95,500–$96,000 range, consolidating and testing resistance near $97k. As we’ve outlined, this rally is orchestrated: smart money distributes into retail excitement while underlying structure remains suspect.
Our base case holds firm: a high-probability window for further upside (~7,200+ on SPX, 103–110k on BTC) remains open for roughly 3–5 weeks, providing asymmetric juice before correction risk builds asymmetrically into late January / mid-February (12–14% to the ~6,150 zone) — with potential for a deeper 20% shake in Q2 amid intensifying global/geopolitical stress, China supply-chain pressures, and/or AI/tech bubble digestion amid maximum rotation out of tech.
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Updated Base Case
No imminent crash — relax on the panic. We’ve fielded outreach from several of you this week, and the reassurance is simple: we’re still in a classic distribution phase. Leading indicators flash higher, yet volume remains thin and our MXC regime shows very low acceleration - this is a masterclass in pumping risk assets while big players quietly rotate out of tech and distribute holdings to excited retail chasing hyped narratives (e.g., IREN’s AI pivot delivering +25–40% YTD, IONQ trading at premium multiples on quantum story).
The pain trade stays up like a vacuum: bulls lack real conviction, bears get humiliated in rangebound drift with net positive bias. Rotation is maxed — complacency clashes with structure. As we’ve maintained, the real correction is most likely late January / mid-February (12–14%), and signals will confirm it.
Beneath the surface, uncertainty and fear are building: China supply-chain risks, geopolitical shifts, and warning signs in the AI/tech bubble (now 6+ years in the making) point toward a more serious shake in Q2.
That said, we are finalizing our flagship 2026 report — “2026: Timing the Political Cycle and Riding the Great Rotation” — and one timeless lesson from Stan Druckenmiller’s mentor still rings true: never bet against midterm election years, especially when backed by the Big Beautiful Bill and its $1T+ price tag for future generations.
Liquidity tailwinds can be powerful — and they’re already baked into the long-term bullish structure: 7,800 by year-end and >8,000 at the 2027 market top.
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